Binge viewing, a new addiction

Have you ever been stuck to a TV show, watching 4 episodes in a raw? From Game of thrones to Breaking bad more and more people cannot stop at the end of an episode. They watch it from their smartphone, computer, tablet, console, or smartTV

This new addiction is called Binge viewing or Binge watching. It spreads as fire with new SvoD (Subscription VoD) services such as Netflix (US), Watchever (Germany) or CanalPlayInfinity (France).

watcheverThe trend is accentuated by SvoD services releasing a whole season of a show at the same time. You’ve got 12 episodes at your finger tips.

This kind of abnormal behaviour is posing some serious issues to SVoD providers : their infrastructure need to cope with such huge demand, and they need to pay the content owner out of their 9€ p. month flat subscription fee. On the other hand operators face the same problem : they need to pay the bandwidth used for OTT (Over The Top) services from a flat broadband monthly fee.

The introduction of UltraHD will pose more questions as the traffic will grow three to four fold for the same content. The first mass production UHD TV sets will ship this year and there is no content offer on the market except piracy and VoD / SvoD services.

Binge viewing is posing serious threats to Svod providers and operators at the same time. Maybe it is time for message to warn for this addiction. Can you imagine before the 2nd episode of your favorite show a message such as “Binge viewing causes eye disease” or “Binge viewing is creating some real business model issues to your providers”?

 

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2013 : the moment of truth for Windows

I was invited to a Microsoft event recently and it started very odly. The guy from Microsoft started with a comparison of the cumulative shipments of Android devices and Windows devices. The Guy was chespounding that there were more than 1,5 billion Windows device in use compared with as little as 500 M Android devices.
So the real threat for Microsoft isn’t Apple but Android. And when you look closer and start to do some forecast there is a serious risk for Microsoft to be outnumbered by Android device in not a so distant future.
Here is forecast, I have cooked up aggtregating numbers from different sources.

Android vs Windows shipments forecast (M units)

Android vs Windows shipments forecast (M units)

As there is very little growth in the PC segment, the Windows growth will come from 2 sources : smartphones and tablets.
Next year 2013 will be a truth moment. If Microsoft Windows 8 or if Windows Phone fails, Android devices will outnumber Windows devices and will become the dominent computing platform.

Which Windows to do some word processing ?

Office Home and Student will be bundled for free in every Windows RT tabtop (tablet + laptop). So if you buy a more powerful Windows 8 Intel powered PC you will have to buy it at an average 89€ on most online stores.

> Engadget article

The logic behind this choice is beyond common understanding. On the entry level tabtop running Windows RT you’ll get more software to create content than on a regular laptop running Windows 8.

My understanding of the frontier between the two OS is that with a taptop you do some light work and you consume a lot of Internet and multimedia. On a laptop running Windows 8 you work and produce content with the like of Microsoft Office software.

My view is that the Office giveaway on Windows RT is there to justify the price of the OS in front of Android.

But is it a wise choice or will it upset high end consumer that might start to be upset being milked so obviously on Office software?  Will it create some appetite for Libre Office software?

2012 : the year of the Tablet & PC merge

I was mentioning in some previous posts that the PC industry was colliding with the mobile industry. For every accident one expects a big boom. It will be the case with the launch of Windows 8 next year.

Windows 8 transforms the way we see tablets and computers. There will be no clear frontier between a PC and a tablet anymore. The tablet will be able to change its finger friendly UI into a mouse friendly UI when docked with a mouse and keyboard.

On this video I shot you can see the Metro UI and a switch to the PC legacy UI.

In the past we used to think a machine = a UI = a processor. This paradigm is no longer valid.

OS/UI/processor

Now an OS will be able to run on different chipset architectures (ARM or x86) and to run different UIs depending on the context.

OS/UI/Processor

It is already the case with UBUNTU 11.10 which runs on X86 and ARM.

Toshiba AC100 running Ubuntu 11.10

I really love my Toshiba AC100 running Ubuntu. OK it’s really sluggish due to the lack of RAM (only 500MB) so it’s more or less a mono task computer but never the less it works. For more information on Ubuntu on ARM > Ubuntu Wiki

One can expect next year a revival of the long lasting war between MAC and PC. I expect Apple to merge its MacOS and iOS for Tablet UIs into something new that will combine the 2 product categories. Apple will most probably manage it smoothly to avoid damaging its healthy iPad business as it did in the past managing the transition from iPod to iPhone.

OS UI Processor future

Microsoft which has no presence in the tablet space will be far more aggressive in merging the 2 segments. The unknown factor remains Google. Will Google be able to strengthen its Android value proposition and combine it with Chrome OS?

Why Apple should stop making Macs

I was making a BCG matrix for a client of mine the other day. And I just wondered what it could reveal on Apple’s product portfolio and its future decisions.

As a reminder a BCG matrix a strategic tool to identify the growth and profit potential of each product or business unit.

You first determine the growth of the market and the market share of the product. You end up with 4 categories of product:

  • Stars: Profitable and growing product. Usually companies pour more money in it to push them further. In Apple’s case, the star products are the iPhone and iPad
  • Cash cows: extremely profitable product, no extra effort or investment is needed to maintain them. Here one finds the iPod, where Apple enjoys a huge market share in a stable market.
  • Question marks: These products have an uncertain future. No apple product fits in this category.
  • Dogs: These products should be stopped if unprofitable. If profitable, no investment should be made. This may mean selling the product operations. In Apple’s case, the MAC operations.
Apple BCG Matric

Apple BCG matrix

Will Apple sell its MAC operations? I don’t think so, but surely Apple won’t invest much in the development of the next Mac generation. Bur will surely focus on its iPads and iPhone star products.